Analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies / London School of Economics, commissioned by the Nuffield Trust, projects expenditure for health and social care for older people in England from 2010 to 2022.
The NHS might suffer a £44-£54 billion funding shortfall in 2021/22 without unprecedented productivity gains over the next ten years. This funding gap could be reduced to £28-£34 billion in 2021/22 after productivity gains meeting the “Nicholson Challenge” target of four per cent per annum up to 2014/15.
Wittenberg, R. Hu, B. [and] Comas-Herrera, A. [et al] (2012). Care for older people: projected expenditure to 2022 on social care and continuing health care for England’s older population. London: Nuffield Trust, December 2012.
There is another related Nuffield Trust report:
Roberts, A. Marshall, L. [and] Charlesworth, A. (2012). A decade of austerity? The funding pressures facing the NHS from 2010/11 to 2021/22. London: Nuffield Trust, December 2012.
There is also an Executive Summary.
[A brief reference to this item features in Dementia and Elderly Care: the Latest Evidence Newsletter (RWNHST), Volume 3 Issue 5, January 2013].