The NHS consumed 3.4% of GDP fifty years ago. By 2012, spending on the NHS and social care consumes 8.2% and 1.2% of GDP respectively; and that is 20% of government spending. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), spending on NHS and social care could amount to 16.6% and 2.5% of GDP by 2061; i.e. to a barely sustainable 50 per cent of government spending by 2061. As spending rises, diminishing returns are likely…
This report attempts to provoke an “engaged and informed public debate” about the choices which it will be necessary to make regarding future spending on health and social care. The main factors influencing trends in spending on health and long-term care are considered, with projections and modelling of future health spending in the United Kingdom and internationally. The ageing of the population, apparently, is much less import than has been generally supposed.
This report is linked to the “Time to Think Differently Programme”, which attempts to offer a comprehensive overview and analysis of the trends which are likely to influence how health and social care is delivered in the future.
Appleby, J. (2013). Spending on health and social care over the next 50 years: why think long term? London: The King’s Fund, January 31st 2013.