A recent study by researchers University College London (UCL) and the University of Liverpool attempting to assess the future societal burden of dementia (sometimes termed the “Dementia Timebomb”) predicts the number of people living with dementia in England and Wales could increase to 872,000, 1,092,000, and 1,205 000 by 2020, 2030, and 2040, respectively
There are currently an estimated 767,000 people living with dementia in England and Wales.
This study uses data from English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). An improved mathematical model, IMPACT-BAM (IMPACT-Better Ageing Model), incorporates disease trends and death rates, alongside the effects of increasing life expectancy.
Although the number of newly diagnosed cases of dementia is falling, the overall prevalence of dementia will rise substantially if people live longer and deaths from other causes, such as cardiovascular disease, continue to decline.
Ahmadi-Abhari, S. Guzman-Castillo, M. [and] Bandosz, P. [et al] (2017). Temporal trend in dementia incidence since 2002 and projections for prevalence in England and Wales to 2040: modelling study. BMJ. July 5th 2017; 358: j2856.